Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
